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State high school playoff brackets posted: Can you beat the ScoreCzar computer’s picks?

getyourbrackets

The WIAA State Soccer playoff brackets are out at 1A through 4A and we’ve got them posted below for you to check out!  Thanks to Scott and ScoreCzar for sending the brackets to goalWA.net to share with soccer followers.

ScoreCzar has posted his latest Top 20’s, and they greatly influence the computer’s tournament predictions, which are posted after the brackets.

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Now comes the tough part: do you think you can beat the ScoreCzar computer at predicting the state title winners?  Right click / print the blank brackets above. Use them to figure out your choices, round by round. Then when you’ve got your championship picks, post them in the comments section below!

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Here are the ScoreCzar’s STATE 2013 COMPUTER PREDICTIONS!

https://sites.google.com/a/scoreczar.com/scoreczar/

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2a-computer3a-computer

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Post YOUR predictions in the comments section!

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25 thoughts on “State high school playoff brackets posted: Can you beat the ScoreCzar computer’s picks?

  1. Pingback: First Look: State playoffs underway as latest High School polls debut | goalWA.net

  2. goalWA has looked over the brackets, and these are our predictions for state winners…

    4A…Snohomish
    3A…Kennewick
    2A…Cheney
    1A…Chelan

  3. I can see 3A happen as you suggest, however, I’ve seen Chief Stealth play twice, once out of their league they do not look as good, look for an early exit by them. I’ve seen Shorewood, I’ve seen Bonney Lake … it will come down to that game and whoever wins that wins state in the end. Bonney Lake and Shorewood have the right momentum … a slight edge might go to Bonney Lake since they would get the “home field” should that game happen … “home field” is not factored into the “statistics” and emotionally it can make the difference. Ever watch Barclays,or MLS?

    • goalWA.net’s founder David is a Chief Sealth graduate. While he has his fingers crossed, he also thinks the Seahawks are untested at the state level.

  4. I won’t go through the whole bracket but I will predict champions in the 3A and 4A. Thomas Jefferson for the 4A and Bonney Lake for the 3A. Homered both of my picks!

    • I’m going to disagree! 4a will be stadium tigers! 3a will be chief sealth. Interested to see camas union snohomish also. Add tj an stadium and any of those five could win it.
      Kirbycuse

  5. I’ve been on a rampage about the lack of a seeding process and these brackets clearly illustrate why. It’s exciting and fun to finally see how things lay out, but what you’re really looking at is a totally inept system bereft of any logic and a callous disregard for the athletes, coaches and fans.

    Does anyone really want to see Bonney Lake play Lakeside in round 1, or Shorewood in round 2? How about Stadium and Camas potentially meeting in round 2, or Highland and Seattle Christian also in round 2?

    These are all top teams who have worked hard to achieve a level of excellence only to be thrown immediately into the fire against teams of comparable ability. The way this miserable system is set up places an over-emphasis on the draw and robs us all of a fair and competitive state tournament.

    This happens in every state tournament in each sport the WIAA runs. The message it sends is; work hard and hope you get lucky. It’s also another reason why club sports are overtaking High School in its’ importance.

    So, come on WIAA…take your own advice and just play fair.

  6. ALERT! These brackets will be updated later this afternoon with corrected match-ups. When they are, you’ll see that the ScoreCzar computer has picked at least one different champion than the ones listed above!

  7. Amen to that, ScoreCzar!

    Ideally, WIAA should follow NCAA D1 hoops footprint when it comes to playoff brackets with seeding based on RPIs during a regular season. Obviously, the reason why WIAA can’t do the proper seeding is that it currently does not have any mean to measure and rank teams like the way ScoreCzar has now, but now we have ScoreCzar’s numbers, it is only logical that WIAA should use such info to seed teams and make HS playoffs (any sport, not just soccer) more meaningful.

  8. Seeding HS teams should not happen. Having some computer based ranking system is not the answer for seeding, this is not college. This is the same system that had Redmond rank in the top 10 most of the year, it’s interesting but by no means the answer for anything. Bobby has spoken the trooooffff

  9. Pingback: Picture Perfect: State High School Boys Soccer comes into focus | goalWA.net

  10. “Seeding HS teams should not happen,” it’s too late, because WIAA already have HS teams seeded all along, specifically in the form of how teams finish in district tournaments, for example District 1 #1 vs. District 3/4 #4, District 1/2 #5 vs. District 3/4 #2, etc.

    Having read my comment above again, I should make a correction, namely that WIAA does have a way to “Rank” teams, but only those teams that qualified for district tournaments. I suppose the status quo is fine, but it seems quite logical to somehow also make use of the available computer numbers. Not sure how that will all work out though.

    Anyways, good luck to all the teams that made it to State which in itself is already quite an achievement.

  11. I just found the flaw in a statistical model like this:

    Bonney Lake got shorted one game, Lakes (a 1-0 forfeit win because Lakes couldn’t field a team). The first time Bonney Lake played Lakes they beat them 14-0. Those 13 potential goals weren’t counted in the stats, if they were, I’ve recalculated them and Bonney Lake would be a .63 and not a .80. That is a huge difference statistically. Schools like Chief Stealth or Lakeside or (you name them) got to beat up on teams like Cleveland or Rainier Beach or West Seattle (get rid of one of their 9-0 games and make it 1-0, how does it change their ranking?) For example, if I toss out 8 goals on Chief Stealth 9-0 win against Cleveland and make it 1-0 they change to a 1.06 and not a .96 … what would that do to the predictions to the Finals?

    There is no way to statistically compensate for teams that get to play teams twice and destroy them and get their goals for high and a team that is given a forfeit win of 1-0.

    If Bonney Lake or any other team got forfeit wins with a 1-0 goal count factored in their overall score can be much higher than it would be if they could have played them and got lots of goals.

    Does put a little wrinkle in the stats. Did anyone else get stuck with a 1-0 forfeit win on a school you could have ran up your goals for stats?

  12. I put caps on teams that exceed a maximum level of awfulness (to put it bluntly) so their opponents do not receive ‘full credit’ for all of the excessive goals. Rainier Beach rates out at +30, but their opponents only receives their max of 8.00 on the SOS line. So score 100, doesn’t matter you’re only getting credit for beating a team that rates out at an 8. Same as Lakes and any of the other more challenged teams.

    OPR = Overall Power Rating
    SOS = Strength of Schedule
    D/O = Defense / Offense (Points allowed divided by points for)

    OPR = D/O x SOS

    The system doesn’t necessarily reward blow out wins. If Team A beats Team B by a significant margin and Team B is not already at the max,

    Here’s what happens: use the above key

    Team A pushes Team B’s OPR higher & higher, which tells the system that Team B is bad. Team A now has to deal with a higher OPR negatively affecting their SOS. The more goals Team A scores, the worse Team B becomes, the worse Team B becomes, the softer Team A’s SOS ultimately is, which is 1/3rd of the formula.

    It’s a circular logic equation which is fascinating to watch. When I put the scores into the system and hit enter, I can literally see the numbers argue back & forth. They spin like a slot machine on the spreadsheet until they settle on a number that satisfies both sides of the argument.

    As more games are brought into the system, the more accurate it becomes. So, this may explain why you see teams rate high initially, but then drop off and settle at their true level.

    The formula above is the basic structure, there is much more to the system, but it’s nuanced and too numerous to detail here.

  13. Pingback: Tuesday state high school playoffs scoreboard | goalWA.net

  14. oops on Stadium, oops on Archbishop Murphy …

    Go Bonney Lake! 1-0 win over Lakeside. Not the prettiest win, and such a close nerve-racking game. Congrats on making it to Elite 8 for the first time ever! Keep going, screw up the ScoreCzar prediction in the next round!!!!!!!!

  15. It’s always good to have upsets as most of us love underdogs regardless of which seeding methodology. Great to see Shorewood, Shorecrest and GP moving on in 3A!

  16. Good to see south sound plateau teams of Sumner and Bonney Lake representing the area well too. That northern league should be proud, three teams out of it into the final 8, wow! testament to the league, I really like it when I see that. Would love to see Shorecrest and GP keep quietly doing what they are doing against the teams in the upper bracket and advance after tonight. Shorewood – nope, not gonna happen, Bonney Lake is that good.

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