ScoreCzar and goalWA.net have entered into a partnership to get the word out about high school soccer rankings. Every Sunday goalWA will have a “First Look” at the Top 20 rankings. On Monday ScoreCzar will reveal the entire rankings for the state of Washington. Read more about ScoreCzar in this goalWA feature story.
MAY 5, 2013 Rankings: GO HERE.
WEEKLY SCOREBOARD: See the scores that affected this week’s rankings here.
APRIL 28, 2013
Here are the ScoreCzar Top 20 Boys High School Soccer Teams
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It’s getting a little crowded at the top and the margin of error is incredibly slim. Here’s a good example; Skyview and Union played to a 2:2 draw back on April 9th, then Union beat Skyview this past week 2:1. One goal separates these two teams, yet Skyview is 7th and Union is 9th in the computer rankings. Does this mirror real life? Not when you compare the head to head match ups. But, the computer takes more than that into consideration. Skyview has played a harder schedule and their goals allowed divided by goals scored (D/O) quotient is slightly better. Skyview has scored a lot of goals and has allowed some, while Union hasn’t scored much but has limited their opponents to very little, two ways to skin a cat. Of course the numbers can change, but ultimately what the computer is saying is that Skyview has put together a slightly better season so far, enough to override the head to head’s.
Last week I said ‘Lakeside and Chief Sealth seem resolved to make this a two team race’. Just one week later Lakeside is 3rd and Chief Sealth is 4th. Eastside Catholic played both these teams, plus #7 Bainbridge and went 1-1-1 and still can’t crack the top 20…such a fickle game, this Soccer.
Bonney Lake is the beneficiary of last week’s tumultuous Metro meltdown and has been installed as the new #1. That’s not to say that anybody handed it to them. The Panthers have played a very difficult schedule and have only allowed 8 goals all year. The computer is enthusiastic in its support, and it is well earned.
Teams from all four corners of the state are well represented in the top 20, with Cheney very much looking like the Beast from the East. But, whoever survives District 1 will be battle hardened and prepared to take on the Blackhawks, should they advance.
Bellingham did very little wrong, while Cedarcrest did everything right finishing the week scoring 10 goals and allowing zero, hard to keep the Red Wolves out of #2 after a week like that.
Is the SCAC as good as their numbers indicate? Seven of the 10 teams are in the Top 20, but they don’t play anyone outside of their league. The computer struggles with this because it likes to contrast the data with teams that play a more diverse schedule. The SCAC is an island unto themselves, but we’ll know more about them after Districts. No reason to believe that Highland, Warden and Royal are nothing short of top shelf teams, but my suspicion is that one or more may be a paper tiger.
We know that Seattle Christian is a high quality team, and they have rebounded nicely after their lone loss to Cedar Park Christian.
As we head into the postseason, look for the numbers to begin to re-form. Where we are currently says a lot about each team. But, it’s not the final analysis. As teams face other teams beyond their league, you will start to see more dramatic movement. Some leagues are more difficult than others and the numbers will begin to realize this and will react.
Generally speaking the lower OPR teams will move on to Districts and beyond and play other low OPR teams along the way. This is where the computer learns the most and the picture begins to gain more clarity.
The system has been in place for four years and has been used in multiple sports and the worst it’s ever done was when a team ranked #7 won the actual championship. So, stick with the computer and let’s see how it does in its first year running Soccer.